State of the Mariners – July 18th, 2025
By Brittany Wisner, edited by Charles Hamaker
Seattle, WA - As the All-Star Break comes to a close, the Seattle Mariners stand at 51-45 entering the “second half” of the season. They are currently second in the American League West, five games behind the Houston Astros, and hold onto the third Wild Card spot.
The last two series before the All-Star Break were seemingly a perfect encapsulation of the team’s season thus far: a sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees which delivered arguably their worst loss of the season– a complete collapse after Bryan Woo took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and the offense plated five runs, just to lose 6-5 in extra innings– followed by arguably their best series of the season, sweeping the Tigers in Detroit and scoring a whopping 35 runs against MLB’s best baseball team.
High ceiling, low floor. That has been the story of the 2025 Seattle Mariners through their first 96 games. If they want to make a legitimate run at the playoffs, they’ll need to raise the floor with improved performances from a few key players and hopefully a fruitful trade deadline.
Stars of the First Half
Cal Raleigh
Okay, we’ll start with the easy one.
Not only has Big Dumper been the brightest star in Seattle, he has arguably been the brightest star in all of Major League Baseball so far this year.
Lead the league in home runs at a historic pace? Check.
Lead the league in Runs Batted In? Check.
Break the American League record for most home runs before the All-Star Break? Check.
Break the franchise record for most stolen bases in a season by a catcher? Check.
Become the first catcher as well as the first switch-hitter in MLB history to win the Home Run Derby? Check.
Become a serious contender in the AL MVP race? Check.
Do all this while commanding a pitching staff, serving as the most respected voice in your clubhouse and remaining profoundly humble? Check, check and check.
It is almost difficult to comprehend the true greatness of the season Raleigh is having. He is doing things we have never seen before from a catcher and may never see again. With that, it is more than fair to expect some natural regression from the Dumper in the second half of the season – the wear and tear that the season has on a catcher will eventually take its toll. The Mariners will likely want to give him more rest days in an effort to prolong his health into September and beyond.
Bryan Woo
With the starting rotation suffering a slew of injuries, the one steady anchor has been Bryan Woo. His 2.75 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 114.2 innings pitched earned him his first first All-Star nod, a much deserved acknowledgment of a completely dominant first half.
After Woo’s first two years in the league were both impacted by various injuries and setbacks that caused him to miss some time, the Northern California native has become one of baseball’s most reliable pitchers in terms of providing lengthy outings. Woo has now recorded 18 consecutive starts of six or more innings, the most in MLB and the longest streak to start a season since Randy Johnson did it in 20 games in 1993.
Woo has already surpassed his total strikeouts from 2024 with 109 K’s, as well as his total Wins Above Replacement, accruing 2.3 fWAR through 18 games (he was worth 2.2 fWAR in 22 games last season).
Randy Arozarena
The second most productive hitter (amongst qualified hitters) in Seattle’s lineup by wRC+ and slugging percentage was Randy Arozarena, with a torrid month of July propelling him to an All-Star nod.
The 30-year-old Cuban-boron slugger has begun to provide some much needed protection for Raleigh, frequently making opposing pitchers pay when they choose to pitch around Seattle’s backstop. Arozarena continuing to be a threat at the plate will be key for the Mariners in the second half, along with receiving improved production from other parts of the lineup.
Who Needs To Turn It On In The Second Half
Julio Rodríguez
While the first half of his season hasn’t been nearly as bad as some internet fans might lead you to believe– in fact, he’s been quite solid, producing a 110 wRC+ at the plate and elite defense in the outfield, making him worth 2.9 fWAR– the Mariners will still need more from Rodríguez in the second half.
Seattle’s superstar has had an interesting first half. While the strikeouts are noticeably down, he is not hitting the ball as hard or lifting it in the air as frequently as he typically has in the past. His hard hit rate has dropped from 48.2% in 2024 to 45.4% this year while his ground ball rate has increased significantly from 44.3% to 49.3%. Historically, Julio is at his most productive and dangerous when he is hitting the ball hard and in the air.
The good news is that metrics have begun to trend upwards for the 24 year-old. His launch angle and hard hit rate were up in the final series before the break, resulting in six hits, two of which were doubles and three of which were home runs. Rodríguez declined from participating in the All-Star game, citing a desire to spend the time taking care of his body and preparing for the second half of the season. Hopefully, a mental reset and some rest does him good and Seattle sees increased production as they chase a playoff spot.
The Rotation
The Mariners entered the season once again leaning on their starting rotation, built around the five-headed monster of Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo. But after years of unprecedented injury luck, that luck finally ran out.
Kirby missed time with shoulder inflammation and Gilbert spent 52 days on the Injured List with a flexor strain. While those two have both since returned, Miller has now had two stints on the IL with a bone spur in his elbow and it looks increasingly unlikely he’ll make it back in 2025. That has left the team leaning on Emerson Hancock, rookie Logan Evans and occasional spot starts from the bullpen, exposing an ironic lack of depth and making the rotation more of a question mark than a strength during the first half.
While Kirby has looked better in his outings as of late, Gilbert remains shaky. Castillo has put together a relatively decent season, but regression is evident in his metrics, with his velocity, chase rate, strikeout rate all down significantly from previous years.
It is not inconceivable that Seattle may need to add to their rotation at the trade deadline. The team is designed to be built upon the starting pitchers and, as it stands currently, there are too many question marks for a playoff hopeful.
Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander
That all brings us back to raising the floor of a team that has seen more volatile ups and downs than they have in recent memory.
As they currently occupy a wild card spot and are receiving a generational season from their catcher, President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto and General Manager Justin Hollander undoubtedly need to make some significant additions at the trade deadline.
Priority number one should be an infield corner bat. Rumors are swirling about a reunion with Eugenio Suarez as well as John Naylor being a potential trade candidate, assuming the Arizona Diamondbacks are sellers. They also need a solid bullpen addition and potentially an addition to the starting rotation, as aforementioned.
What’s Next?
Fresh off the MLB All-Star break and in one of the most important series of the season, the Seattle Mariners begin the second half with three games at home against the Houston Astros in a critical American League West division showdown. Following that big time weekend set against the Astros, the homestand will continue as the 56-40 Milwaukee Brewers come to town starting on July 21st for a three-game set before the team takes off on a seven game road trip. Following that road trip, the Mariners will begin their next homestand against the Texas Rangers on MLB trade deadline day, so it’ll be fascinating to see what takes place between today’s homestand opener and the next homestand opener.
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Check out our previous Seattle Mariners articles here.
Check out our previous articles with writing by Brittany Wisner here.
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